Dear Friends,                                                                    No recriminations, update

The President was asked whether, in light of the flash floods in central Texas, where the death toll has risen to at least 70 (we still don’t know how many of the children at the summer camp died), he has considered rehiring experienced meteorologists laid off in the DOGE efforts “to cut fraud, waste and abuse”. Here is the reported interchange:

“‘Mr. President, in light of the floods, do you think the federal government needs to hire back any of the meteorologists who were fired in the last few months?’ one reporter questioned. In response, the president just shrugged his shoulders. ‘I would think not,’ Trump, 79, said. ‘This was a thing that happened in seconds. No one expected it.’”

This is a place in which the President may have, understandably, failed to understand what was indeed unexpected to him and almost all the rest of us (certainly including me). “Unexpected” is an ambiguous word. In this case, 24 hours before the catastrophic rain, it may have been unexpected. I do not understand meteorology, I’m saying “24 hours” just because we’re talking about events that can develop in less than a day in unexpected ways. These events did develop over a very short time, everything depended on the closest, second by second monitoring of the situation; and, as it became clearer and clearer that things were getting much worse than expected, to be prepared to send out timely warnings to all endangered areas.

When this is all over, and – I so hate to write these words – the funerals have happened. Then, investigate. But always remember that the President is right, this was, in the local and immediate sense, unexpected. The question of available resources, etc., had they been seriously limited by layoffs, etc. must be faced and answered. But all investigation must be pointed towards what to do now, including what resources, and especially, what expert personnel are needed. So, unexpectedness again.

Why are so many unexpected climate events – “100 year events” to use the President’s phrase – happening so close together? Everyone knows the answer to this question: human-induced climate change. Climate change has and will have long-term effects (the likely collapse of the mechanism that creates the Gulf Stream, for example). It also has immediate effects, and we are seeing them now: more extreme conditions leading to all possibilities, colder, warmer, wetter, dryer, occurring in rapid succession. More extreme conditions occurring in more rapid but unpredictable sequences. Volatility – sudden and unpredictable change in either direction – is a condition feared and hated by the “market”, and we are all, as always, forced to live the “market’s” emotions whether of exuberance or dread, mostly the latter right now. Volatility is always present in nature, but relatively long-term equilibria are possible. The volatility that we face now, as we still do not know how many girls from a summer camp are dead, is of our own making.

We must ask the President to consider these things. Politely, but forcefully.

Love and solidarity,

            Bobby